On Thursday, June 21, 2007, EESC and Belarusian Institute for Strategic Studies organised a discussion "Belarus - Russia 'Gas War': A Catalyst for Transformation in Belarus?" The discussion considered possible transformation scenarios in Belarus that were prompted by the energy crisis. Also the speakers stressed the new opportunities of a more active E.U. policy towards Belarus under these new circumstances.

The discussion was featured by Mr. Pavel Daneyko, Chairman of the Board of the Institute for Privatization and Management, Mr. Alexander Chubrik, Economist at the Institute for Privatization and Management Research Center, and Dr. Vitali Silitski, Director, Belarusian Institute for Strategic Studies.

The Belarus - Russia "Gas War" during the 2006 - 2007 created a big challenge for the future social, political and economical development in Belarus. The rising oil and gas prices threatens A. Lukashenko regime, because in the near future the state will be unable to meets its financial obligations in the social sector. Furthermore, the risen prices show that the whole Belarussian economy is non-competitive even in the Russian market.

The experts stressed that the regime is now facing existential problems - how to preserve the authoritarian system and its repressive machinery and to stabilize the currency without reforming the economy and creating growth opportunities. Finally - how to ensure political and social stability under such new conditions. The main issue that covered all topics was the issue of energy security.