Analysing international policy processes and Lithuania’s role in them
Review Oct 17, 2022

Belarusian trends 2022-3

Summary

The Lukashenko regime continues to persecute those involved in the protests during the 2020 presidential elections, as well as those who speak out against Russia’s war in Ukraine. Belarusian military exercises continue to take place regularly on Ukraine’s borders. However, the majority of Belarusians do not want Belarus to intervene in the war in any form and believe that even if ordered to cross the Ukrainian border, the army would not follow it.

Highlights:

  • Belarus’ gross GDP contracted by 5.2% in the first seven months of 2022, and the physical volume of Belarus’ foreign trade fell sharply, although in monetary terms it remains close to its 2021 level due to inflation.
  • The Lukashenko regime continues to persecute those involved in the protests during the 2020 presidential elections, as well as those who speak out against Russia’s war in Ukraine. Belarusian military exercises continue to take place regularly on Ukraine’s borders. However, the majority of Belarusians do not want Belarus to intervene in the war in any form and believe that even if ordered to cross the Ukrainian border, the army would not follow it.
  • The International Civil Aviation Organisation has published its official findings on the grounding of Ryanair flight FR4978 in May last year.

M.A. from the Institute of International Relations and Political Science, Vilnius University, joined the RESC team in 2022.Anton contributes to the development of analytical and informative content, focusing on Russia, Belarus, and the Eastern Partnership countries.