Belarus Programme

The political crisis which started in Belarus in 2020 after the falsified presidential election, mass protest and subsequent state violence, caused a wave of migration from the country.

Following the disputed presidential election in August 2020 and the refusal by the Western states to recognize the incumbent Alyaksandr Lukashenka as the elected president of Belarus, several waves of political repressions swept across the country.

Russia’s war in Ukraine has become a signal that temporary relocation to Lithuania may take longer than most Belarusians thought until recently. Such a situation may paradoxically stimulate the desire of Belarusians (both individuals and organizations) to integrate in Lithuania more strongly.

The Lukashenko regime continues to persecute those involved in the protests during the 2020 presidential elections, as well as those who speak out against Russia’s war in Ukraine.

It is estimated that the Belarusian economy could lose between €16-18 billion annually as a result of the sanctions. The country’s GDP is expected to fall by USD 1.2 billion in 2014 and by 4.1% in 2022.

The Belarusian army is strongly opposed to military involvement in Ukraine, and its commanders are keen to avoid sending ground troops to Ukraine.

The presidential election in Belarus in 2020 lead to a fundamental change in the attitude of the ruling regime towards the creation of a common defence space, and its formation gained momentum.

As other post-Soviet Republics faced civil disruption, some even to the level of populist revolts, such as in Georgia and Ukraine, the authoritarian government of President Alyaksandr Lukashenka appeared, for years, to be unassailable.

The insights from the Minsk, London and Washington DC perspective are shared by three experts: Andrei Yahorau, Edward Lucas and Chris Miller.